Category Archives: Steve Mullington

Spotlight on the Hennessy Gold Cup – Steve Mullington

The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place this Saturday at Newbury and once again it has attracted a high class field. Last Saturday’s Lancashire Chase winner trainer Paul Nicholls holds a strong hand with Rocky Creek, Black Thunder and Unioniste whilst lady of the moment Venetia Williams saddles Houblon Des Obeaux.

The Hennessy is a Grade 3 Handicap Chase run over a distance of 3m 2½ furlongs. In the past ten years two winners have won this race on route to then winning the Cheltenham Gold cup namely Denman and Bob’s Worth.

Trainer trends (past ten years)

Nicky Henderson (3-3-12) trained the winner in 2005, 2012 & 2013.

Paul Nicholls (2-7-24) trained Denman to win in 2007 and 2009 and has won the race three times in all.

David Pipe (1-3-10) has had the winner once in the past ten years.

Philip Hobbs (0-3-10) has never won it in the past ten years. His last winner in this race was back in 2001.

Age Trends (win-place-runners)

5-y-o: 0-0-2

6-y-o: 3-9-27

7-y-o: 5-8-59

8-y-o: 1-2-24

9-y-o: 1-5-42

10-y-o: 0-3-16

11-y-o+ 0-1-7

As you can see a combination of all the 6 & 7 year old winners over the past ten years has yielded eight race winners in all, more than any other age group.

Diamond Edge in 1981 is the only horse aged over nine to win in the last forty years.

Over 8’s haven’t fared that well either over the past ten years with only Denman bucking that trend when he won the race for a second time.

Price Trends

Eight of the last ten winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter.

The winner has come the first four in the betting seven times out of the last ten renewals.

Other Race Trends

Highest placed RSA finisher to run in this event: 161P22P18 (3-2-9)

UK Jump Jockey & Trainer Partnership Trends (past 14 days)

R.Johnson/PJ Hobbs 10-26 (38.5%), S.Twiston-Davies/P.F Nicholls 10-32 (31.3%), T.Scudamore/D.Pipe 5-25 (20%), A.Coleman/V.Williams 5-26 (19.2%), B.J Geraghty/N.J Henderson 3-14 (21.4%)

Previous Winners

(Graphic Courtesy of www.ratz4racing.co.uk)
(Graphic Courtesy of www.ratz4racing.co.uk)

(Graphic courtesy of www.ratz4racing.co.uk)

Summary

Given their impeccable record in this race in recent times it is very difficult to get away from backing a Nicholls or Henderson trained horse. Six and seven year olds look to be the order of the day and my own personal selection is the seven year old Smad Place (e/w). Although Alan King’s name is not particularly synonymous with this race his grey gelding ticks plenty of the trends boxes for me.

Spotlight on the Betfair Chase – Steve Mullington

OnTheOtherHoof would like to welcome guest blogger Steve Mullington who gives us an insight into the statistics and trends for Saturday’s Betfair Chase. You can see his usual blog stuff at http://mully1.wordpress.com/.

Saturday the 22nd November will see the tenth running of the Betfair Chase (registered as the Lancashire Chase) at Haydock Park so let’s take a look at some of the big race trends and the trainers and jockeys to follow on the day. The race itself is a Grade 1 Chase run over 3 miles and has been won by Kauto Star four times and also by another Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Silviniaco Conti & Cue Card have won the last two renewals and are both entered again this year.

Trainer Trends

Paul Nicholls (5-1-10) saddled Kauto Star to win it four times and also trained Silviniaco Conti to win it in 2012 and finish third in 2013.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) saddled Imperial Commander to finish first and second in the race.

Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) won the race last year with Cue Card.

David Pipe (0-2-3) has trained the runner-up in 2008 & 2012 and third in 2009.

Nicky Henderson (0-2-2) saddled Long Run to finish second in 2011 & 2012.

Age Trends (win-place-runners)
6-y-o: 2-1-3
7-y-o: 2-4-15
8-y-o: 1-2-19
9-y-o: 2-2-14
10-y-o: 1-1-4
11-y-o+: 1-0-4

Horses aged six have gained two wins and a second from just three attempts and all three were French bred.

Price Trends

Eight of the last nine winners were priced 9/1 or shorter and the favourite has won the race four times in all.

Other Race Trends

Six of the nine winners ran in the previous season’s King George race and four of the nine winners have run in a Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Three of the last nine winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby last time.

Haydock Jockey Trends (last five seasons)

Jason Maguire 26-105, 25%, -£14.40, A.P McCoy 10-23, 19%, -£23.80, T. O’Brien 9-46, 20%, +£5.58,
W.Hutchinson 7-36, 19%, -£9.88, B.Hughes 6-68, 9%, -£9.27

Haydock Trainer Trends (last five seasons)

Donald McCain 33-143, 23%, -£2.08, Venetia Williams 10-76, 13%, -£14.18, David Pipe 10-58, 17%, +£10.71, Nicky Henderson 10-55, 18%, -£6.98, Paul Nicholls 10-53, 19%, -£5.43

Previous Winners

(Graphic courtesy of www.ratz4racing.co.uk)
(Graphic courtesy of www.ratz4racing.co.uk)

Summary

This race demands a high level of pre-race form to be a contender and in all probability the winner is likely to come from the first three in the betting. Cue Card, Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti currently head the market and will all have their supporters for obvious reasons. Menorah the recent Charlie Hall Chase winner from the all-conquering Hobbs/Johnson/Whateley team is an interesting prospect should he line up and could be an interesting outsider.